Pilot System Dynamics Model for Coastal Rural Interactions-Danube’s Mouths - Black Sea Case Study

Abstract

This study examines the methodology that was used to transfer the analysis from stakeholders meetings that led to causal loop diagrams (CLDs) into a pilot system dynamics (SD) for land- sea interactions in the Danube’s Mouths - Black Sea region. The model addresses the main problems raised by stakeholders, represented in the CLDs for which the SD structure is fully defined in Vensim software. The aim of the paper is to design an SD model for each CLD developed together with stakeholders and experts from the Danube’s Mouths-Black Sea area. For this study, the first three steps necessary for the full implementation of the SD model in the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve and its marine area were considered: identify the main stock variables and their flows for each CLD sector, identify or add causal interactions between stock variables, design and combine causal loop diagrams for sectors, supported with dynamic hypotheses. In order to have a functional model, the work continues with collection of data, models equations and non-linear table functions, to quantify the CLD, design, implementation and testing of generic model archetypes and inspiring tutorial examples, implementation of stock-flow models, calibration, testing, and validation, policy design (identifying policy levers) and policy analyses. Further, the model’s objective is to explore alternative scenarios for improving the quality of life and sustainability within the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve and its marine waters (Black Sea) as one of the most affected areas along the Romanian coast.